Spanish Super Cup Preview: Another Chapter in El Clásico Could be Defined by Raphinha

Few fixtures in world football carry the gravitational pull of attention like El Clásico, and the Spanish Super Cup offers yet another high-stakes chapter in the storied rivalry between Spain’s two superpowers. As cynical as pundits can be about the expensive four-team format being set up to create El Clásico in Saudi Arabia, Barcelona and Real Madrid still had to win their semi-final matches. Their pathways through the semis were radically different, setting up even more intrigue for the big clash for Spain’s fourth most important trophy.

Since losing 3-0 to Chelsea near the end of Barcelona , Hansi Flick’s side have won nine straight matches. Not unbeaten, but won. Only one of those games, the 2-1 win over Eintract Frankfurt, was decided by one goal; the rest were wins by two or more for the Blaugrana. This kind of dominance should have Culers excited for the prospect of a rematch with Real Madrid , a match that they lost 2-1 back in October. But the humiliation they handed Athletic Club might have papered over the cracks that still exist, at least defensively.

Real Madrid likely won’t be as naive as Athletic Club and Ernesto Valverde were in allowing Raphinha to get into the half space on the left side. It should also be assumed that the double pivot combination of Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga, a recent move that has given Xabi Alonso some much-needed stability in the middle, will not be as naive as Athletic Club were in giving Pedri and Frenkie de Jong so much time on the ball. The Bilbao side allowed the likes of Pau Cubarsí, Eric García, de Jong, and Pedri to each play important diagonal balls that left their forward and midfield lines completely bypassed. This led to 4v4 situation with Barcelona’s front three attacks plus Fermín López barreling down on Unaí Simon’s goal in rapid transitions.

For more on the tactical issues for Athletic Club, The Barcelona Podcast broke down the issues in transitions and how Raphinha found so much space:

That said, whether it’s Robert Lewandowski or Ferran Torres, Barça has looked like a different side with Raphinha back. Gavi was the hero in both the 2023 and the 2025 Spanish Super Cup victories for Barcelona , but his missing energy and aggression was clearly felt with the Brazilian and Fermín on the press. With as good as Roony Bardghji was, there was no notion that Barcelona were missing Lamine Yamal in the first half. Lamine Yamal should be fit enough to return to the starting line-up, but it’s a good sign that Hansi Flick has his team playing the way he wants them to without the superstar winger.

Defensively is where the hesitation should come for Culers. Despite scoring five against Athletic Club, Barça only had an expected goals of 2.09 to Athletic Club’s 1.76. Shots on target were seven to three and both teams had three big chances. If Ernesto Valverde’s team was more clinical or had an attacker as deadly as Kylian Mbappé, the match might have been much different.

The fears for Culers are clear, but Real Madrid should have similar fears. They were largely outplayed by Atlético Madrid, and the two goals of brilliance from Fede Valverde and Rodrygo might be the only two reasons that Los Blancos are in the final. Thibaut Courtois also came up big, but for the first time in a long time, the man with the gloves on the other side in Joan García just might be his shot-stopping equal.

Real Madrid are on a five-game winning streak of their own, but they certainly haven’t been convincing over the last month. They got through the round of 32 in the Copa del Rey with a 3-2 win over Talavera, they lost 2-1 to Manchester City a month ago, and a capitalized on a red card to Sevilla for a win near the holidays.

Though Culers are wise to know that Real Madrid’s form never matters in El Clásico. This is a victory that could give some clarity to Xabi Alonso’s future. Hansi Flick doesn’t find himself under the same pressure after winning the domestic treble last season. Madrid are also four points off of Barcelona in the La Liga table, so the pressure will likely carry over back to Spain regardless of Los Blancos’ result in Saudi Arabia.

A trophy, obviously. For Barcelona , a Spanish Super Cup trophy would continue the confidence that Hansi Flick’s project is building this season. It was affirm that the Barcelona without Raphinha and the Barcelona with Raphinha are two different teams. For Real Madrid , it’s about once again proving that form doesn’t affect their ability to win in big matches, especially against their rivals.

El Clásico rarely follows a script, and finals even less so. No scoreline should surprise and as usual, form doesn’t really matter.